Modern Polling – Are cell phones boosting McCain’s poll numbers? Posted on: 17/09/08 Category: Blog

McCain and Obama are neck-and-neck in the polls. Is this really the case?

I’ve watch the polls jump around every day since the Republican National Convention, which has got me thinking about modern polling.

Certainly, people have always been wary of polls.  There are always questions about quality samples and what questions are being asked.  While these are very legitimate concerns, statistics show that polling done in the right way is very accurate, and indeed a good measure of public opinion.

I do believe, however, things are beginning to change.  The way polling is being done is slowly becoming less accurate because of a product that is becoming standard in among most Americans – the cell phone.

Cell phones have created a challenge for polling companies.  Many households are now cell phone only – particularly younger households.  According to a 2007 Pew Research article,

Cell-only adults are very different. The National Health Interview Survey found them to be much younger, more likely to be African American or Hispanic, less likely to be married, and less likely to be a homeowner than adults with landline telephones. These demographic characteristics are correlated with a wide range of social and political behaviors.

When the article was written, 12.8% of Americans cannot be reached by phone because they either have cell phones instead of a land line, or no phone at all.  This is up from 7% 20 years ago.  This number has certainly increased since that time, and will only continue to do so.

So what does this mean in terms of this election?  I believe the polls showing McCain being so close to Obama are a little misleading.  Because those without cell phones are all demographics that tend to be Obama supporters, I think many Obama voters are being left out.

A recent Slate article talks about how Obama hasn’t been acting worried that McCain has closed the gap in the polls.  The article gives a few reasons as to why this may be, but I have a different theory – Obama knows things aren’t as close as they appear.  He was right in the primaries, and he may be right in the general election.